October, 2022

This memo is meant to contextualize and expand on the findings highlighted in the recently released Second and Third Quarter RVA Eviction Lab Data Reports. The reports cover eviction data across the Commonwealth of Virginia from April to September, 2022. Individually, they present an incomplete narrative of the status of evictions in the commonwealth, because the Virginia Rent Relief Program (RRP) ended halfway through the Second Quarter (Q2) 2022. Read together, however, they indicate the onset of an eviction crisis in the transition from pandemic-era eviction protections to a post-covid housing instability landscape.

The End of VA Rent Relief

The statewide Rent Relief Program closed on May 15th, 2022, at the precise midpoint of Q2. Legal protections requiring landlords to apply for rent relief before evicting tenants for nonpayment of rent ended at the end of June, 2022, at the end of Q2. The implications of the removal of these supports for tenants are immediately obvious in court data collected in the following weeks. The number of eviction filing across the state were the highest they had been since the first quarter (Q1) of 2020, reaching 51% of their pre-pandemic levels. By the third quarter (Q3), filings exceeded Q1 2020 numbers, reaching 87.8% of pre-pandemic levels. In Chesterfield, Petersburg, Hampton, Virginia Beach, Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, and some parts of Richmond, the rate of filings was higher than it was in 2019. At this pace, the rate of eviction filings in Virginia will soon return to their pre-pandemic status, and could even surpass it, resulting in an eviction crisis greater than the conditions prior to the pandemic. In 2018, the eviction filing rate in Virginia was 14.9%, over 7% higher than the national average. The rate of eviction judgments and default judgments is rising as well.

Figure 1 (below) displays how eviction filings across the state in Q3 2022 compare to filings in Q3 2019. The localities marked with the darkest red color have seen eviction filings reach over 144% of what they were in 2019, but it is important to note that for localities with low eviction numbers overall, any increase will carry more weight. Attention should be paid to the localities mentioned above.

Since the onset of the pandemic, the U.S. Census Bureau has been conducting a Household Pulse Survey, which collects data on housing stability for households across the country, among other things. In the week before RRP closed, the percent of survey respondents in Virginia who reported not being caught up on rent payments peaked. The percent of survey respondents for whom eviction was somewhat or very likely in the next two months was the highest it had been since the beginning of 2022. The next time the survey was administered, two weeks later, both metrics were at the lowest they had been since the end of Q3/beginning of Q4 2021. By the end of Q3, these metrics had fallen even more. Read in isolation, this drop in respondents facing eviction may seem promising, but considering the way this drop coincided with the end of rent relief and the increased eviction filing and judgment rates, it is likely that the drop is a result of some of those respondents being evicted. 

Notably, the drop appeared the first week that the Household Pulse Survey ceased collecting data on respondents with no or slight confidence in their ability to pay the next month’s rent. However, the survey began collecting data on an illuminating new metric: change in monthly rent.

Rent Changes

In Q3 of 2022, nearly 60% of respondents to the Household Pulse Survey in Virginia reported an increase in their rent in the past year. For over 40% of respondents, that rent change exceeded $100 monthly. The highest rent increases were experienced by Black respondents, with over 30% facing increases of over $250 monthly. Fair Market Rent (FMR), however, did not increase by $250 or more anywhere in the Commonwealth between FY 2022 and FY 2023. The largest FMR increase in Virginia was for a four-bedroom in the Richmond MSA, which is $236 more in 2023 than 2022. Increases in FMR did not exceed $200 for a three-bedroom or smaller. This indicates that in the wake of the pandemic, landlords are increasing rent at a greater rate than FMR is increasing, particularly for Black tenants.

Parties Responsible for Eviction

In the City of Richmond, we have particular insight into the parties who are filing for eviction. 50% of the city’s Q3 evictions are attributed to 24 plaintiff names (those filing for eviction). When aggregated by common ownership (landlord mailing address), 50% of evictions are attributed to just 15 landlords. Regarding the plaintiff company type (LLC vs. individual), 902 evictions, or 86.89% of the citywide Q3 total, are attributed to LLCs. 130 evictions, or 12.5% are attributed to individuals, and 6 evictions, or .6%, are attributed to RRHA. From this, we can conclude that the majority of evictions can be traced back to a limited number landlords, primarily operating behind LLCs, which allow for a greater level of anonymity. 

Overall Implications

The immediate impact of the end of COVID-era tenant support, combined with rising rents and a continued concentration of evictions amongst a specific group of landlords paints a bleak picture of tenant displacement in the City of Richmond and the Commonwealth as a whole. We know that the high rate of filings discussed above is a canary in the coal mine for an eviction crisis. The impending crisis calls for action on the part of policymakers as we head into the 2023 Virginia Legislative Session, lest conditions become even more dire for vulnerable renters – particularly in a state already notorious for its high eviction rates.